The car industry is undergoing a radical transformation, with most car makers agreeing the next 10 years will bring more change than the two previous decades. The next target date cited by automakers as a tipping point is 2025, when everything from materials and fuel to cost and the companies that build cars are set to look dramatically different. In this report, the J.P. Morgan Research team explores the rise of the electric vehicle and what the industry will look like by 2025.
Automakers are preparing to phase out cars powered solely by internal combustion engines (ICEs) as governments look to tackle fuel emissions. The growth in electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) is climbing and by 2025, EVs and HEVs will account for an estimated 30% of all vehicle sales. Comparatively, in 2016 just under 1 million vehicles or 1% of global auto sales came from plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs).1
By 2025, J.P. Morgan estimates this will rise close to 8.4 million vehicles or a 7.7% market share. While this jump is significant, it doesn’t compare to the kind of growth expected in HEVs - cars that combine a fuel engine with electric elements. This sector is forecast to swell from just 3% of global market share to more than 25 million vehicles or 23% of global sales over the same period. This leaves pure-ICE vehicles with around 70% of the market share in 2025, with this falling to around 40% by 2030, predominantly in emerging markets.
For both North America and Europe, hybrids and BEVs are set to lead over the next decade as plug-in hybrids are not proving too popular in either region. In Europe, plug-in electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) will rise from roughly a 2% share of total new sales in 2017 to around 9% by 2025, nearly eclipsing 1.5 million vehicles by the middle of the next decade. A dramatic move away from ICE-only vehicles is expected and by 2025 only plug-in electric vehicles and HEVs will likely be sold. Over that time period, J.P. Morgan forecasts sales of plug-in electric vehicles in Japan and Korea will reach 384,000 vehicles, representing a market share of 6%, while HEVs will approach 1.8 million vehicles or 27% of total sales. Meanwhile in the U.S., tougher fuel economy regulation will likely push automakers to expand their EV offerings, but not with the same degree of urgency as in Europe, where there are looming carbon dioxide emissions targets and fines. Nevertheless, overall EV sales – including BEV, PHEV and hybrids – are estimated to account for over 38% of total sales in 2025. 1
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